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No matter how the investigation proceeds, the affair has divided the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and raises serious questions about Carlsson's leadership. For example, Finance Ministry official and SDP member Birgitta von Otter-wife of Finance Minister Kjell-Olof Feldt, the party's second-mostinfluential leader after Carlsson-sharply chastised Carlsson for playing down the affair in order to protect Leijon.

her fierce attack was supported by other senior and middle-ranking party officials, although not by her husband. (b)(3)

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Jwhile Carlsson has been generally praised for giving Cabinet ministers more manuevering room than did Palme, his open style now seems to have contributed to some of the government's problems. In particular, the Leijon incident makes the government seem clumsy, undermining Carlsson's claim that the SDP, which has governed for 50 of the last 56 years, is the only party able to govern. Until recently, voters have bought Carlsson's argument, primarily because the internecine squabbling that has characterized the nonsocialist parties—both in government (1976-82) and in opposition-made them appear inept. Although fluctuating, polls now indicate that the nonsocialists narties'

combined votes in the general election could unseat the SDP. (b)(3)7

The latest scandal comes on the heels of a series of shocks that have shaken popular belief in Sweden's immunity to the corruption and crime of other Western democracies. • The Palme assassination raised the specter of international terrorism. • Revelations about secret arms deals and the resultant numerous investigations exposed the hypocritical practices of both business and political leaders who wittingly circumvented regulations in an effort to boost the domestic arms industry. • Last autumn's escape of Sweden's most celebrated spy during a conjugal visit home, made the government appear ridiculous and led to the coohse(b)(3) quent resignation of former Justice Minister Sten Wickbom.

As the election campaign heats up, opposition leaders may well make Carlsson's lack of control over the Cabinet their rallying point, but they have formidable obstacles to overcome if they are to convert their standing in the polls into an electoral victory. For one thing, their own personal rivalries and policy differences make it difficult for opposition leaders to take advantage of Carlsson's vulnerability. For another, Carlsson—though weakened-is still the leading contender. He continues to outdistance his opponents in “trustworthiness” ratings, and he combines a folksy image with highly developed political skills-traits that are likely to help him convince Swedish voters to go with a if faulty, choice rather than gamble on the divisive nonsocialists.

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