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Terrorism Review

26 March 1987

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Focus

France-What Will LARF Do Now?

A panel of judges found France's most wanted terrorist, Georges Ibrahim Abdallah, leader of the Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Faction (LARF), guilty of complicity in two murders and one attempted murder of US and Israeli diplomats. In a surprise move, he was sentenced to life in prison, even after government prosecutors asked for a 10-year sentence. French-public opinion greeted the tough sentence and guilty verdict on all three counts with approval. Both President Mitterrand and Prime Minister Chirac have publicly stated invabdallah will not

(b)(3) be pardoned, an act that is now his last legal recourse.

The citizens of Paris braced for retaliatory bombings like those of February, March, and September of 1986, conducted by followers of Abdallah seeking his release. Over 1,000 policemen were brought into Paris during the trial. So far the

pw much longer LARF will refrain from terrorist attacks in France.

group's threats have not materialized, and observers are wonde(b)(3);

French security officials see a combination of three reasons for the calm during March: LARF also was surprised by the trial's outcome and is building a network for future attacks; the group has been deterred somewhat by the additional security in Paris; and Syria has been pressuring LARF not to attack French targets. Each of these factors probably has some validity:

LARF's current capability to act in Western Europe is uncertain, but the group probably was just as surprised by the verdict as more seasoned observers and may, in fact, be weighing its options while at the same time rebuilding its infrastructure in France.

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Paris is, indeed, better prepared to handle another bombing campaign like those of last year, but it is by no means certain that the group will conduct another such campaign—and the current high level of security cannot be sustained indefinitely.

• Syrian pressure on the group may have figured in the March calm and will

become even more important in the coming months, (b)(3)

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Syria --The Key Player

France explored many avenues to halt the bombings in September 1986, and Syria probably played a key role in restraining LARF. Damascus controls the area of northern Lebanon where the Abdallah family and other clans with LARF members are located, and Syrian officials have told LARF leaders that they would not tolerate further attacks on French soil. There were none in the six months preceding the trial. Syrian President Assad may

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Secret

DI TR 87-006 26 March 1987

Approved for Release: 2017/09/13 C05922886