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such attacks, probably would be similar to the assassination of Lt. Col. Charles Ray in 1982 and the attempt on the life of the US ConsUL General in Strasbourg in 1984. Before the bombings in 1986, LARF was best known for selective, violent assassinations, as when it killed the Israeli diplomat.

(b)(1) (b)(3)

If LARF is still determined to carry out more terrorism on Abdallah's behalf, one course of action offers a greater chance for success with fewer drawbacks. The group could try to seize, or buy, French hostages in Lebanon or elsewhere and try to negotiate a trade or a pardon for Abdallah. Given Paris's publicly acknowledged policy of hostage negotiations—French hostages have been fraad in LebanonLARF may calculate it could force Paris to cut a deal.

  • (b)(3)

This tactic of putting pressure on the government without alienating the public worked once before: in March 1985, LARF members Esbir and Al-Khuri kidnaped French diplomat Gilles Peyrolles in Beirut and successfully negotiated a swap for Abdallah. The deal fell through, however, after Peyrolles was released, perhaps giving LARF an incentive to seize more than one hostage the next time

around. The French Government may already be preparing for such(b)(1)ario.

(b)(3)

(b)(3)

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Approved for Release: 2017/09/13 C05922886