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established. We do not know, for example, the terror- unknown. We believe the growing use of freelance ists responsible for a series of bombings in July and terrorists accounts for part of this problem. The August in East and West Beirut in which 76 persons chaotic conditions in Lebanon initially provided the were killed, nor their exact intended targets. In the setting for this development, which also provides state fall, the French contingent of the UN peacekeeping sponsors the deniability they seek for their terrorist force in south Lebanon suffered several attacks, and a operations. Lebanon will continue to play a key role in French diplomat was assassinated as he entered the facilitating contacts among terrorists, and the trend French Embassy in East Beirut. Information received toward anony(b)(3) terrorist incidents is likely to in early 1987 suggests that Hizballah was responsible. continue for the assassination of the French diplomat (b)(3)

In our judgment, prospects for the early release of the Westerners were not the primary victims of the hostages are not good. We are virtually certain that constant violence in Lebanon, but they remained an the captors represent Shia extremist elements and important target, especially for kidnapers. Elements that decisions about their fate will be made by of Hizballah-using a variety of covernames-proba- Hizballah's leaders, in consultation with Iran. Syrian bly were responsible for most of the kidnapings, or Lebanese pressure in release them is unlikely to although in some cases freelance terrorists may have sway Hizballah

(b)(3) taken hostages in order to them to the highest bidder. Four members of a French television crew State sponsors will continue to use terrorism to furwere kidnaped in March; three eventually were re- ther their own objectives, but they will make serious leased in June and November. Two Americans,

efforts to avoid detection. Father Lawrence Jenco and David Jacobsen, were released in July and November, respectively, but three more-Frank Reed, Joseph Cicippio, and Edward Tracy—were kidnaped in the fall. At the end of the year, we judge that they were still in the

Both Syria and Libya are likely to view the custody of Hizballah, along with Americans kidnaped frequent and continued use of surrogates—particularas long ago as March 1985. One other American, ly radical Palestinians—as a way to prevent their Peter Kilburn-along with two British citizens—was fingerprints fror(b)(3) discovered at the scenes of executed following the US airstrikes on Tripoli and their crimes Benghazi. We believe Libya was involved in the

(b)(3) executions(b)(3)

(b)(1) (b)(3)

Outlook Middle Eastern groups proved increasingly willing in 1986 to carry out indiscriminate attacks designed to cause maximum casualties and gain worldwide publicity. This trend is likely to continue into 1987. Any lull in terrorism because of the préoccupation of many Middle Eastern groups and their state sponsors with the fimis in Beirut probably will be only temporary.

(b)(3)

In 1986 it became increasingly difficult to assign responsibility for specific terrorist acts to a particular group, especially in the Middle East. The group affiliation of over-half the terrorist incidents that we attribute to Middle Easterners last year remains

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