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certainly be raised in the runup to the September 1988 election, we do not expect any of the major parties to put the Bofors scandal in the forefront of its election campaign. To date, Prime Minister Ingvar Carlsson has weathered the scandal virtually unharmed.

The Greens--who are expected to win their first seats in parliament in the 1988 election--stand to gain the most from the Bofors affair by picking up support from voters disillusioned with the traditional parties and opposed to exporting arms to countries involved--or likely to become involved--in a military conflict. (b)(3)

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(b)(3)

CONFIDENTIAL

Approved for Release: 2017/09/13 C06141809

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