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particular, radical Islamic fundamentalists are likely to strike French interests in both France and Lebanon as long as a French presence remains in Lebanon and France continues to provide weapons to Iraq. Libya also may stage attacks against French targets if Paris continues to actively support the Government of Chad.

• French police have had no recent success against

Action Directe, and both its international and domestic factions appear to be capable of carrying out attacks at will.

• The Antiterrorist Liberation Group is likely to

continue its deadly campaign against Spanish Basques in France, which may provoke ETA to retaliate against French targets in Spain.

(b)(3)

b(

On a more positive note, terrorist attacks by separatist groups against France probably will decline. The FLNC observed a self-imposed moratorium on violence from July 1985 through January 1986, but recently carried out several bombings. Iparretarak and the separatist movements in the French Caribbean and New Caledonia have been relatively quiet so far this year. Even if terrorist activity by the separatist groups declines, the new French Government still will have to contend with a formidable terrorist problem. In our view, France probably faces an increase in serious international terrorist activity that will more than offset the effects of reduced violence by separatist groups.

(b)(3)

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Approved for Release: 2017/09/13 C05632837