American presidents are clearly defined and dominant figures in a well-established
democracy with a large number of diverse and aggressive factions. An attacker can be
certain of great media attention. These reasons contribute to a significant probability
of being assassinated, while the generally extremely tight security measures and the
clearly defined succession rules22 work in the opposite direction. Four American
presidents (Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley and Kennedy) have indeed been assassinated
and there is a considerable number of unsuccessfUL and thwarted attempts 23. One of
the main factors contributing to these many assassination attempts is the dominant
position of the American President making him an attractive target.
The daughter of the first Prime Minister of India, Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi
was a prominent ruler of a newly established democracy with many diverse and
aggressive ethnicities and religions. The Indian media are free to report on such
events (see Sen 1982, Besley and Burgess 2002). The probability of being the object
of an assassination is therefore substantial. Gandhi was well protected but became the
victim of the “praetorian effect”, namely an assassination by her own security forces.
She was murdered on 31 October 1984 in her garden by two of her security guards
belonging to a different ethnicity, the Sikhs (Frank 2002, Sarin 1990, Dilip and Ashok
1985).
All Swiss governments consist of committees of equal persons, in the case of the
federal government seven persons, in the cantons between either five or seven
persons24. Major political decisions are taken via popular referendums, which means
that politicians can only take rather unimportant decisions. To kill a politician would
have little or no effect because his or her impact on policy is quite small. The country
knows a strict division of power and is geographically very decentralized with 26
cantons and over 3,000 communes for a population of 7.5 million. The civil society is
intact; trade unions, the churches and private clubs exist in abundance and are
independent. According to the model developed, these factors make political
assassinations very unlikely. There is only one major factor working in the opposite
direction. The country is strongly fractionalized with four official languages and many
different dialects. Indeed, the only time there was a fear of attack against politicians
was when the French speaking part of the canton Berne wanted to separate. But since
the new canton Jura was formed (as a result of several referendums) this threat
disappeared. Swiss politicians, including the members of the Bundesrat (the Federal
22 Many people all over the world were much impressed by the quick swearing in as
President of Lyndon Johnson already in the plane carrying back Kennedy’s corps
from Dallas to Washington.
23 All American presidents since WWII have been subject to assassination attempts
(see “The list of United States presidential assassination attempts”, wikipedia).
24 Of the 26 Swiss cantons, 14 have an executive committee of 5, and 12 of 7
members.
3. United States of America and John F. Kennedy
4. India and Indira Gandhi
5. Switzerland