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American presidents are clearly defined and dominant figures in a well-established

democracy with a large number of diverse and aggressive factions. An attacker can be

certain of great media attention. These reasons contribute to a significant probability

of being assassinated, while the generally extremely tight security measures and the

clearly defined succession rules22 work in the opposite direction. Four American

presidents (Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley and Kennedy) have indeed been assassinated

and there is a considerable number of unsuccessfUL and thwarted attempts 23. One of

the main factors contributing to these many assassination attempts is the dominant

position of the American President making him an attractive target.

The daughter of the first Prime Minister of India, Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi

was a prominent ruler of a newly established democracy with many diverse and

aggressive ethnicities and religions. The Indian media are free to report on such

events (see Sen 1982, Besley and Burgess 2002). The probability of being the object

of an assassination is therefore substantial. Gandhi was well protected but became the

victim of the “praetorian effect”, namely an assassination by her own security forces.

She was murdered on 31 October 1984 in her garden by two of her security guards

belonging to a different ethnicity, the Sikhs (Frank 2002, Sarin 1990, Dilip and Ashok

1985).

All Swiss governments consist of committees of equal persons, in the case of the

federal government seven persons, in the cantons between either five or seven

persons24. Major political decisions are taken via popular referendums, which means

that politicians can only take rather unimportant decisions. To kill a politician would

have little or no effect because his or her impact on policy is quite small. The country

knows a strict division of power and is geographically very decentralized with 26

cantons and over 3,000 communes for a population of 7.5 million. The civil society is

intact; trade unions, the churches and private clubs exist in abundance and are

independent. According to the model developed, these factors make political

assassinations very unlikely. There is only one major factor working in the opposite

direction. The country is strongly fractionalized with four official languages and many

different dialects. Indeed, the only time there was a fear of attack against politicians

was when the French speaking part of the canton Berne wanted to separate. But since

the new canton Jura was formed (as a result of several referendums) this threat

disappeared. Swiss politicians, including the members of the Bundesrat (the Federal

22 Many people all over the world were much impressed by the quick swearing in as

President of Lyndon Johnson already in the plane carrying back Kennedy’s corps

from Dallas to Washington.

23 All American presidents since WWII have been subject to assassination attempts

(see “The list of United States presidential assassination attempts”, wikipedia).

24 Of the 26 Swiss cantons, 14 have an executive committee of 5, and 12 of 7

members.

3. United States of America and John F. Kennedy

4. India and Indira Gandhi

5. Switzerland