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Outlook We do not expect the pace of anti-US attacks in the Andean region to slacken in the next several years. Most incidents probably will continue to be harassment attacks directed against property-rather than persons—particularly American businesses. This continuous barrage may have the same overall effect as more lethal attacks—a drawdown in both the official US presence and the American business community. Businesses are likely to reduce their presence before the American embassies do, however, because they cannot affo (b)(3)ame degree of protection as the United States Government can

We have no information that such outside sponsors as Cuba or Nicaragua have backed anti-US terrorist operations in the Andean region. Many Andean groups, however, receive varying degrees of general support-from propaganda to weapons supply-from state supporters. We believe the type of attacks undertaken by these groups would change little, even if state sponsors stepped up their assistance. In many cases, the Cubans are,

ajant to encourage anti-US violence for fear of American retaliation

(b)(3)a

Andean groups.are displaying more brazen and sophisticated techniques such as daylight attacks and simultaneous bombings. This adds to the frustration of the local security forces, which often are unable to protect potential targets.

Figure 3 Attacks Against US Businesses, 1980-86

Percent

Retail/hotel 9

Manufacturing/ mining 8

Offices of international firms 26

Other enterprises 10

Financial institutions 10

Petroleum facilities 22

Businessmen 15

(b)(3)

312031 387

Secrern

4

Approved for Release: 2017/09/13 C05922884