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Peruvian President Alan Garcia has informed foreign embassies in Lima, including the US Embassy, that the Peruvian security forces cannot protect them. In Colombia the military would be severely strained if all four major guerrilla groups joined forces in a full-scale insurgency. Despite some successes, the counterterrorist forces in Colombia, Peru, and Chile have been unable to successfully penetrate terrorist groups and prevent them from stri!; in will. As a result, police action is reactive, rather than preventive.

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The threat from Andean terrorist groups, while still controllable, has grown far more rapidly than was predicted in the early 1980s, and the portents for the second half of the decade are even more troubling. Acting alone, Andean terrorist groups do not have the potential to pose a serious threat to the stability of their host governments. Both domestic security and US interests, however, would be severely challenged if a convergence of interests among the terrorists, insurgents, and drug traffickers led them to launch a unified campaign of violence. Such a union could undermine democratic institutions by provoking a return to authoritarian methods. Moreover, a series of escalating international attacks could subvert the economic base of many of these countries by prompting American disinvestment. Should US counterterrorist and counternarcotics assistance to the host governments increase, the existing tacit cooperation among traffickers, insurgents, and terrorists may evolve into a formance against a perceived common enemy—the United States.

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Approved for Release: 2017/09/13 C05922884